Let us say you are a
farmer and you have mango plantation (keeping in line with the season's
favorite :P). You do hard labor and work day and night and grow 100 kg
mangoes every year.
Now, one cannot live
his life eating only mangoes, And since mango is a good seasonal fruit, good
for health, and not to mention utterly delicious, there would be others who'd
happily trade their farm products, say wheat, for some of your mangoes. Realizing
this, you decide to exchange your mangoes for other products. You tell about it
to your friend who has wheat farms. Incidentally, he happens to be a mango
lover like me and together you develop a rate of exchange, with mutual
understanding of course in this example, say, 5 kg mangoes for 10 kg of wheat.
You give him 10 kg mangoes and get 20 kg wheat for your family, which you
assume should suffice for 6 months. You do the same thing with your other
friends as well in exchange for pulses, rice, vegetables etc.
Now, past 6 months
comes winter, and your supplies have started to diminish. Moreover, you do not
have any mangoes to offer in exchange for wheat and other commodities. But
without the commodities you won't survive for next six months. Now what should,
or rather, what could you trade in exchange for wheat?
You find a solution.
You go to your best friend who trusts you a lot, and you promise to give him 5
kg of mangoes next summer for 10 kg of wheat right now. He thinks about it for
a while. There are of course things to be concerned here. What if you refuse to
give him mangoes later? What if the mangoes you give him aren't good quality?
What if next year is a drought and there are no mangoes?
Let us
say for the sake of simplicity here that your friend here thinks about it but
on goodwill and years of friendship, he trusts you and agrees. Similarly, you
go to your other friends, gain their confidence and promise them some mangoes
next summer for providing you with supplies right now. Now, what you have done
here is that you have developed a trading system wherein you trade items and
commodities for other items and commodities. And the trading currency is none
other than the "items and commodities".
But now, since you
are trading with so many different people at different time, it is getting
difficult for you to keep track of how much mangoes you owe to whom. So what
you do is that you start handing over promissory notes to the people you trade
with, with your sign on it and the amount of mangoes you owe them. So next
summer, whenever you have mangoes harvested, people come to you, show you the
promissory note with your sign on it, and take the mangoes.
But there is a problem with this system: you are promising X kg of
mangoes which you have not harvested yet, i.e., which do not exist. Similarly
you would have supplied mangoes to someone for a certain commodity he'll have
in future but doesn't have it now. And then there is always a risk factor,
i.e., next year maybe a dry one and you may not have enough mangoes to trade.
Realizing
this, you are worried now. You need a damage control. You consult this with
your trusted friend and ask him how to avoid possible damage. Now this friend
of yours is quite a trader himself and has traveled many cities and traded with
many people. He tells you not to worry about it and that he'll let you on a
little secret. He explains it to you how people will need
mango no matter what:
after all it is a seasonal fruit and very delicious. Now if there is less
growth of mangoes next year, then he can ask to negotiate exchange rates in his
favor, i.e., more commodities for same amount of mangoes. Simply put, due to
scarcity, his mangoes will become costly.
You get it a little
bit, but you are still confused. You wonder how will you negotiate rates when
you do not know how much mangoes you are going to harvest next year; how can
you negotiate when there is uncertainty? Your friend smiles, and tells you that
you can. He suggests you to issue only a certain value of promissory notes,
lets say 1000, and then do the trading with these notes after declaring
their new meaning to the traders. These 1000 notes will represent 100% of your
harvest, no mater how much you harvest. So if there is a guy with your
promissory notes valuing to 100, he''ll have 10% of your harvest next summer,
no matter how much you harvest. He can also decide to not exchange it for
mangoes next year when there is a drought, and wait for next to next year
hoping for more amount of mangoes then. Lets call your promissory notes as
Mango Currency (MC)
All goes good and
the mangoes, being good quality and sweeter than its competitors, are valued
more. People want to buy mangoes from you even if they have to pay more. This
means the value of MC gets more, only a few people can afford it. The very
lower class, who wants to eat mangoes but cannot get hold of MC due to its high
value is suffering. This also causes you loss in business since people are now
holding MC instead of trading it for mangoes since the value is increasing.
Since mangoes are not being traded, they are rotting in the collecting compound
with very less people to buy them, causing you huge loss. You now need to keep
the value of MC in check so that people do not hold up to it.
You go
to your friend again and consult him on how to keep value of MC in check. He
tells you to simply issue more promissory notes. Since the total sum of
promissory notes is equal to 100 % of your harvest, if you issue 1000 more
promissory notes in addition to the initial 1000 that you've had, the value of
MC would be halved. 100 MC that was 10% of the harvest would now only be 5% of
your harvest. (This is also how RBI keeps the value of Rupee
under check, else Economic activity of country would go down)
Now you have
developed a good trade system and also know how to keep the value of MC under
check by regulating the supply of promissory notes. Now you decide to expand
your business. You go to your best friend who deals in wheat and has currency
WC (Wheat Currency). He is already doing very good in business and has surplus
money. You tell him about your plans to expand our business and your
requirement of more money for expansion purpose. He listens to you and agrees
to lend you some money at certain interest rate: he already has enough money
and extra money sitting at home isn't earning him anything, so lending it to
you for certain interest seems a good deal.
You borrow 500 WC
from him. Now WC is quite strong in market. So much that 500 WC costs around
1000 MC (how much % of wheat harvest it represents doesn't matter).
Now, you use up all
the WC for expansion but suffer heavy losses. All the WC went down into the
drain. You bought some stuff from it and have it still, but it is not bringing
you any revenue and nobody is ready to buy it back. You are now left with only a
few MC (remember, your currency is also floating in the market; you have maybe
1200 MC at hand). To pay back 500 WC, you need 1000 MC. But if you give 1000 MC
right now, your remaining business will not be able to sustain itself with only
200 MC at disposal and you'll eventually end up bankrupt.
You
now think about possible way out. You plan to issue 2000 MC more, exchange 1000
MC for WC and return the loan. But if you issue more MC, the value of MC will be halved.
Moreover, you can not think of cheating because the value of various currencies
is now checked by Association of Auditors and you need to report any more
printing of currency to them before it can be floated in the market, and all
the currencies are numbered to keep the authenticity in check
Basically,
you are now left with only one option: to try to get your act together and grow
your business back to what it was, and then further more to get enough MC with
sufficient value, to be able to return the loan amount.
Now in the above
scenario, lets replace you with our country India, and replace mangoes you
harvest with the economic activity that takes place in country; and replace
your promissory notes, valuing to 100% of your harvest, to 100% of the economic
activity in the country.
Now, back to your question: What happens when RBI prints more
money to pay off bank loans? You should be able to guess it. More the money
printed, lesser the value of currency. Money flowing in the country is nothing but standardized
promissory notes issued by RBI. They are equivalent to the total economic
activity of the country. If the economic activity does not increase in
proportion to the money printed by RBI, the value of Indian Rupee will go down.
And obviously, value
of MC will go down with respect to promissory notes issued by other people for
other commodities. So when value of Rupee goes down, it does w.r.t other
currencies, USD being one of them.
Its
not difficult to guess that loans provided by World Bank are in USD. If money is printed to pay off
the loan, value of Rupee goes down, which
means you need more Indian Rupee to buy USD. As you can see, you can not repay
the loan unless you actually have the money, over and
above what you 'll need to run the country.
P.S.: Up-vote and Comment..
;) :P
P.P.S.: In case of any wrong
concept/explanation, please comment such, so that changes can be made.